President Trump

[JimHow]

Well, he did appoint three US Supreme Court justices, which will change American jurisprudence for the rest of our lives. Not to mention the damage done at the federal circuit and district court levels. And he tried like hell to overturn an election, we’ll see if we’re so lucky the next time around.

[marcs]

So is exercising the constitutional power of the executive in appointing supreme court justices evidence of being some novel form of dictator? And do you expect that Trump will try to overturn both the election and the Constitutional limit on two terms in office in 2028, when he's 82 years old? Why does logic just fly out the window when people talk about Trump?

Trump is clearly unprecedented, I agree with that. He's the first full-scale demagogue elected to the presidency. But being a demagogue is quite different than being a tyrant or a fascist. The original American system was designed to be almost completely demagogue proof. That system was dismantled as more and more elements moved to direct popular election instead of elite forms of indirect democracy (the original 18th century setup) but a certain amount of protection still held as long as direct appeal to the masses could only be obtained through the mediation of elites and party structures. But as direct popular election became a mass media affair with less and less mediation -- and elites lost legitimacy for a bunch of richly deserved reasons -- a figure like Trump became possible.

However, the core protections against tyranny in the American system -- separation of powers, federalism, individual rights, etc. -- are still operative. For a president or political movement to fully unravel those protections would take a lot of qualities that I don't think Trump has. I also don't think he's even interested in that project of gaining tyrannical power. I do think there's already a lot of unaccountable authoritarian power in the American system, but that power lives in bureaucracies spread across many people and many levels of government.

[DavidG]

Are we not to stand up to that kind of evil by speaking out publicly, for fear that a deranged nutter will take up arms? Are we to remain deferential until it’s too late? No, we should speak out in the strongest terms. I’ll tell you what informs my opinion: knowing Holocaust survivors from my parents’ generation, and the hell they went through in the concentration camps.

As it happens both of my parents were Holocaust survivors. I am pretty familiar with that period of history. Trump is not a Hitler figure or even close to it. The political figure he reminds me most of is Berlusconi, but Trump is such a deeply American figure it's hard to make comparisons.

I am also old enough to remember Trump as President. An interesting time, but not a dictatorship of any kind. Indeed almost a strange reverse dictatorship in that most of the societal pressure was aligned against the nominal leader -- you could get fired for publicly supporting him, but criticizing him in the most intense possible terms could bring you publicity, money and career success. Most of the dictatorial energy, in the sense of actually mobilizing state institutions to take authoritarian steps against political opponents, has been on the anti-Trump side.

The events of the past couple of days have been truly remarkable. Supposedly Bismarck once said (probably apocryphal) that providence takes special care of fools, children, and the United States of America. Feels relevant to the assassination attempt. I actually have some optimism looking ahead. Five years from now this will all be past, we will have a new younger generation of politicians, and in comparison to any other country in the world America has numerous strengths to build on.

Marcus, thanks for engaging. I guess we just disagree on the Fascistic aspects of Trump's rule. I do agree that he resembles Berlusconi in many ways. It's like comparing vintages, each one is shares characteristics with multiple prior vintages.

I think that's an interesting take on his being a "reverse dictator." He did energize the left - there was a lot more civil unrest and protest under his administration than Biden's, even taking into account the pro-Palestinian campus protests. How much attributable to Trump is debatable. There was the reaction to George Floyd but I have to think a significant portion was either backlash to his style on the left or a feeling of enablement on the right. He's founded a movement on rage and anger. I think that does more to rile up the public than anything we've seen from the Biden administration.

Completely agree that recent events are remarkable. We need a new younger generation. I will try to look past my despair to five years hence.

[DavidG]

I was about to respond as Jim did to Mark's statement that Trump was ineffective by citing his SC appointees as anathema to what I think is established precedent. Not just Roe but what appears to be a willingness to use whatever argument takes them to a politically predetermined outcome. I fully admit my bias here.

Appointing justices is not dictatorial. Appointing justices that will bend to the political will of the President is dictatorial. I know that's a bold claim. Every President tries to appoint justices that support their ideology. When that ideology is one of an all-powerful executive, it starts sounding dictator-adjacent.

Also to Mark's point about Trump's ineffectiveness - agreed that he accomplished little legislatively. But he did plenty with executive privilege to foster what I see as antidemocratic policies.

[DavidG]

However, the core protections against tyranny in the American system -- separation of powers, federalism, individual rights, etc. -- are still operative. For a president or political movement to fully unravel those protections would take a lot of qualities that I don't think Trump has. I also don't think he's even interested in that project of gaining tyrannical power. I do think there's already a lot of unaccountable authoritarian power in the American system, but that power lives in bureaucracies spread across many people and many levels of government.

Thought I would comment separately on this. The first part gives me hope, as in I hope to hell you are right.

The last bit about unaccountable authoritarian power - I would rather it be distributed widely than concentrated in smaller groups or in one person. At some point someone has to decide how to implement the laws and enforce the regulations. Everything is open to interpretation. I've certainly spent plenty of time professionally railing against various figures at HHS, CMS, FDA, etc. But there's something to be said for non-political professional bureaucrats who understand technical nuances better than a judge.

[JimHow]

I predict Trump/Vance won’t accept the results of the 2024 election if they lose, or 2028 for that matter. He incited a riot on Capitol Hill in an election where he pretty much lost in an electoral landslide. He hired lawyers to litigate lies that got a bunch of them disbarred. He spread Big Lies about Obama being a Kenyan, he told lies documented in the tens of thousands during his presidency. He’s not “just another asshole president.” He has every right to nominate judges of his choosing, and he will… The Supreme Court will get more extreme, and we will have more Thomas/Cannon judges in every circuit. We have one party that now refuses to accept the electoral process. Last time we had judges and ministerial officers like Pence and that Republican lawyer up in Michigan who signed off on election results. We’ll see if that happens next time. The GOP vice presidential nominee already is on record saying he would not have certified the electoral vote in 2020. If that’s not fascism, Marcus, what is?

[JimHow]

But hey, you know I’ve agreed with you more often than not Marcus on these Trump issues. In the end the Democratic leadership really has only itself to blame here. With all these strong candidates on the bench, the best we produce is Joe. That’s pretty sad.

You know one thing that I have found interesting. I’ve been watching a lot of interviews of attendees at the Trump rally. Almost every one of them has come across as like normal, not crazy, wild eyed, etc. I’m sure there were some crazy Magas there, but most of the people I’ve seen interviewed at the rally have come across as like nice, normal midwesterners. Not everyone who is attracted to Trump is a fascist. Like my neighbors across the street. Some of the nicest people I’ve ever met. They just like Trump!

[JimHow]

Jesus Christ, now Joe has Covid.
The other side has a tanned blonde god, fist pumping in the air, the blood of battle streaming down his face, hot secret service agent hugging him tightly, American flag in the background against a bright blue sky, beseeching his followers to "fight!"
Our side has a tired 81 year old man who can't put together two sentences, who looks like he is ready to be tucked in early by his nursing home aide.
It is time, Joe.

Whitmer-Beshear '24

[JimHow]

Wow what a speech by Senator Vance.
Dare I say it: Kennedy-like?

I’m going to bed.

[DavidG]

Hoping Biden will use Covid as a reason to step aside. Not that he needs another one, but maybe this will give him another push and perhaps a way to internally rationalize/save face.

[JimHow]

We need some youth and personality, something to shake things up. Trump can be beaten. He has an electoral ceiling. We should be close to getting some post assassination attempt polls to see what kind of a sympathy bounce he gets from that and the convention. With this ADHD generation it’ll all be forgotten by the end of next week. Heck, back in my generation, LIFE magazine covered the JFK assassination for the next decade. Geraldo didn’t come out with the Zapruder film until like 1976. In this day and age, we’ll be on to something else by midweek. I’m already past Joe’s debate performance. To me it’s been the two weeks since… No major gaffes but he just doesn’t have it. He’s just…too…old. It’s that simple. We don’t need the CNN experts to tell us that. And don’t give me Harris. We need The Big Gretch. Now. No guarantee she’ll win, but we need a shakeup.

Whitmer-Beshear ‘24

[marcs]

I think Joe is out but it will almost certainly be Kamala to replace him. Having had a multi week fuss about forcing Joe out the party cannot afford a multi week fuss about who to replace him. She may not be your ideal candidate but she will be better than Joe just because she is young and energetic.

I thought the Vance speech was brilliant. He brings a lot of balance to the ticket in terms of temperament/presentation and intellect - very different from Trump in both ways.

[JimHow]

Watching Hulk Hogan, beginning to think all may not be lost after all yet....
I mean if the Dems can't beat this crazy town, then that's just too bad.

[JCNorthway]

I have to confess that I have tuned into 0 minutes of the convention - a combination of moving households the past week, and not wanting to increase my blood pressure (which my doc has me monitoring for a month). Based on what I have been reading, I don't think there is anything new and exciting on the Rebub side, and unless Joe surprises us, I don't see much new on the Dem side. I know how I intend to vote regardless of the candidates, but I would like to see a bit more life/energy/commitment on the Dem side of things.

Waiting . . . .

[stefan]

I just asked Lucie whether she would rather watch Trump speak or see some heads chopped off. She chose the latter, so we'll watch another episode of the Highlander.

[hautbrionlover]

I’ve been telling my friends for weeks that Joe would be out within a week, so I’ve obviously been wrong so far, but I’m getting the feeling that everybody telling him - some openly and some privately - that he’ll not only lose, bring down the Dems running for House and Senate with him, is wearing him down (that and Covid). So I’m thinking (once again) that he’ll drop out next week.
My concern is that if Kamala tops the ticket, she’ll make Hillary look like a winner, and if they give it to someone else, they’ll alienate the indispensable African-American vote - especially Black women, so it’s lose/lose.
And I think the GOP is going to win the Senate either way.

[marcs]

Watching Hulk Hogan, beginning to think all may not be lost after all yet....
I mean if the Dems can't beat this crazy town, then that's just too bad.

Tonight at the RNC was like a fever dream. It just got crazier and crazier until it climaxed in Trumps speech. His energy and dynamism are awe inspiring - a 78 year old man speaking for over 90 minutes straight, much of it clearly as libbed and off script. What an amazing American original he is. It’s like Elvis running for President.

His speech should definitely give you more confidence that the Democrats have the potential to beat him, even changing candidates at the last minute. Tonight showed clearly that he cannot discipline himself, cannot be other than who he is, to pull in undecided voters. It showed not only in his speech but even the choice of speakers - Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock, and Dana White are his celebrity buddies, and could never convince anyone who isn’t already voting for him. But that’s who he wanted introducing him in prime time! That quality puts a lid on his support.

But who he is is so original, so weirdly and totally authentic, that he has created a personality cult.

[marcs]

P.s. although my group chats were humming tonight I had (unfortunately) not invited anyone over to watch the evening with me. But around the end of Hulk Hogans speech I decided this night was too crazy to be totally sober for and I had to open a bottle, so I pulled out a 1997 Dominus (I had no “ daily drinkers” at my house). It was excellent!

[JimHow]

That presentation last night…. Holy cow. I’m speechless. Donald Trump is a madman. He is literally insane. We have one candidate who is insane, and we have another candidate who has dementia. Heaven help us.

[JayLives]

That speech was madness, if he had stuck with the first 25 minutes, he might have come off decent, but boy did it escalate quickly

[JimHow]

Agreed Jay. David Brooks had a good comment today, it was a thought that likewise crossed my mind last night. I think that Trump speech made it less likely that Joe will drop out.

[Comte Flaneur]

https://www.theonion.com/kamala-harris- ... 2024-07-18

[JimHow]

Kamala Harris is gross. She is shallow, a typical phony politician. When she ran for president she was last on my list among Democrats, and, indeed, she was the first of the what 12 or so candidates to exit the race because of her nonexistent poll numbers. I honestly think I would almost rather have Joe stay in the race than have her as our nominee, I say almost only because Joe is now reduced to not being able to put two sentences together. Have you guys seen some of the stuff that he has uttered in those radio interviews since the debate. I mean, this is a total scandal. As Bob Costas pointed out, it should have been an obvious warning sign when he turned down the ultimate feel good interview at the Super Bowl.

[Comte Flaneur]

It is just a question of when rather than if Listless Joe exits right? Seems like the cat is out of the bag? Perhaps his attempt at diversity by picking Harris - the debate candidate who turned on him in the debates in a nasty way - backfired?

[Comte Flaneur]

Maybe Trump is now going to win unless the deep state can fork out a bit more to find someone who can shoot straight?

[JimHow]

Yeah that "little girl" phony debate moment was just one example of what this phony is all about. Then there's her career as a politically ambitious attorney general. I think she failed the bar exam if I'm not mistaken. I just don't see a lot of appeal beyond the Black community and the Hollywood crowd.

[JimHow]

I do agree with Marcs, though, that logistically it is hard to imagine anyone other than Harris. There's too much money involved, everyone has their different plans on how to select a nominee. I think we are stuck with her. The only thing that gives me a molecule of hope is that, in the end, Orange Head is certifiably insane.

[JimHow]

Joe out. Incredible.

[Ognik]

Expected.
Make something of it.
Do you really believe that ""deep state" will save you?
Personally I think you'll screw it up.

[AlexR]

Fantastic news last night. Biden is stepping down.

There's now a real chance to beat bogeyman Trump.

Other than as an advocate of abortion rights, Kamala Harris does not seem to have much of an image.
But i'm sure that's about to change.

The Republican's will do their utmost to poke holes in her armor, but if there were any deep dark secrets, I think that would have come out by now.

Do women voters tend to vote for candidates of their own gender?
A cursory web search implies that they do not, but I'm not so sure...

All the best,
Alex R.

[DavidG]

Whether Harris has holes in her armor is irrelevant. Republicans will make up lies as needed. Democrats will need to aggressively attack the lies and counterpunch. It won’t convince the MAGA cult but it will hopefully convince enough of the apathetic to get out and vote. That will take guts and smarts (which worries me) and money. Peggy tells me that Ds have received $250 million in donations in the 24 hours since Biden stepped down. That gives me real hope that there’s a chance to defeat Trump.

[marcs]

I’d put Harris at even money with Trump. He is old and unpopular, she is young and energetic - not a great candidate because she has kind of a ditzy lightweight feel to her and a history of not being that effective electorally, but trump is at a disadvantage because a lot of people hate his guts or don’t trust him. Harris can get out there and make hay with all his weaknesses in a way that Biden could not. Trump does have an electoral college advantage though - he could lose the popular vote by a few points and still win the election.

Harris can also tack back to the center using her background as a DA. She should try that.

If she does lose though you can again blame the Democratic establishment. It should have been obvious that the VP for a 78 year old candidate was a crucial position but I don’t think they picked the best person they could.

[marcs]

Whether Harris has holes in her armor is irrelevant. Republicans will make up lies as needed. Democrats will need to aggressively attack the lies and counterpunch. It won’t convince the MAGA cult but it will hopefully convince enough of the apathetic to get out and vote. That will take guts and smarts (which worries me) and money. Peggy tells me that Ds have received $250 million in donations in the 24 hours since Biden stepped down. That gives me real hope that there’s a chance to defeat Trump.

$83 million. Still a 24 hour fundraising record though

[Comte Flaneur]

Now that Biden has exited the spotlight will swing over to Trump on the question of age and mental acuity

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... GTUK_email

[DavidG]

Yup, now Trump is the only crazy old man in the race.

[DavidG]

Whether Harris has holes in her armor is irrelevant. Republicans will make up lies as needed. Democrats will need to aggressively attack the lies and counterpunch. It won’t convince the MAGA cult but it will hopefully convince enough of the apathetic to get out and vote. That will take guts and smarts (which worries me) and money. Peggy tells me that Ds have received $250 million in donations in the 24 hours since Biden stepped down. That gives me real hope that there’s a chance to defeat Trump.

$83 million. Still a 24 hour fundraising record though

I’m seeing $81 million for Harris. The $250 million figure was for all Ds nationwide, including House and Senate candidates.

[JimHow]

Back in 2020 I predicted it was going to be a very ugly election. It actually ended up being almost anticlimactic, with Joe bunkered in his basement and holding his modest leads in the key states throughout election season, with pleasant surprises coming in the end in states like Georgia and Arizona. This year, I again predict it is going to be extremely ugly. The Trump Party's racism and misogyny is not only dangerous for democracy, it is physically dangerous for participants. I would not at all be shocked to see more violence.

We always say that the vice-presidential candidates are not all that important in the end. I'm not so sure that will be the case this year. We are going to have some dynamic Ivy League educated lawyer types likely running and I predict some epic attacks. Vance is a major cultural lightning rod and will savagely attack the other side. I was literally eating popcorn last night watching Andy Beshear responding to Vance. He started off as typically-politician, answering Kaitlan's questions with Democratic Party bullet points, but then once she started poking him with Vance insults it got really "good," and he unloaded. My money is on Josh Shapiro because of the Pennsylvania factor but I've also been happy to see Mark Kelly coming to the fore, I've always liked him, astronaut, swing state Arizona, and of course we would have Gabby on board as an added bonus.

In the end, when I do my 270-To-Win electoral map, surprise, surprise, it all comes down to WI/MI/PA. Can Harris-Shapiro hold the Blue Wall? Abortion, minority, and women's rights SHOULD be major motivating factors in the election, but we shall see. We are up against a rabid Trump Party/Fox News campaign. The races for control of Congress are going to be every bit as ferocious as the presidential campaign. I've never been a Harris fan and I'm still skeptical, but American history is filled with many examples of people who have risen to the occasion. We shall see. The extremism of the right terrifies me but in the end I do believe we have greater numbers left of the spectrum... we just have to organize and energize and not shoot ourselves in the foot, like we have so many times in the past.

I was picking a jury yesterday in Portland, former Maine Governor John "Jock" McKernan was in my jury pool, he's well into his seventies but looks as youthful as ever. He was the Republican governor of Maine back in the early 1990s when I was mayor of Lewiston. He is married to Olympia Snow. Even though he was a Republican governor and I was an ambitious 31 year old Democratic mayor, we used to get along great, we were very friendly, as I was with Olympia, Bill Cohen, and other Republicans. Of course this was just before the rise of Fox News and conservative talk radio, which has done great damage to our democracy. Jock is at the center of this picture of when H.W. Bush visited Lewiston High School, as we greeted the presidential helicopters out on the track field.

I listened to Bobby Kennedy's "Ripple of Hope" speech yesterday, when you get down on politics take a moment to study his trip to South Africa, his plane tilting its wings at the prison holding Nelson Mandela, the South African government not affording him protection. No matter how bad things get, we can always know that the potential of politics to do good will always be there. But we can never just assume it, we have to persevere for it every day!


Robert Kennedy Ripple of Hope Speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeqY2oMiwx8&t=632s

+++

[Claudius2]

Guys
Will Kamala Harris walk it in as Democratic nominee or will there be a rational (albeit belated) process whereby various candidates are vetted? Or is it now too late for that? I hope not.

Whilst I’m not surprised than Biden withdrew, I am a little surprised appears to be the chosen one.

[JimHow]

Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee, Claudius. There are only 104 days remaining until the election. She has gotten off to a good start. I’m still skeptical she can win the states we need but she is our horse in the race, like it or not, and we need to organize and get behind her. She may win, she may crash and burn, but she is our nominee. Hang on tight, we are in for a wild three months.

[Comte Flaneur]

Kamala indeed has made a great start

What I find quite revealing is that she has clearly being prepping for this moment for a long time!

https://x.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1815847644863811584