President Trump

[marcs]

John edwards was a totally different case - he was brought up on federal (not state) charges for illegal campaign contributions (unreported donations in excess of the max) to support living costs of his mistress who he got pregnant. He was let off by a hung jury.

As the article I posted said, there is no precedent for a triple bank shot state prosecution like was brought against Trump - someone making a legal payment (its perfectly legal to pay off a mistress) which is claimed to be misclassified in corporate books (a misdemeanor) which is then claimed to misclassified in order to conceal another crime (which makes it a felony). Several different candidates for the crime being concealed were offered for the jury to pick one to convict on, including the idea that it was an illegal presidential campaign contribution (which would be a federal charge, but one the Justice department actually refused to bring based on lack of evidence). I’m convinced that most people cheering this conviction don’t understand the actual charges and how weird they are.

I do think this will hurt Trump politically at least a little at the margins, especially if they manage to lock him up at Rikers for a while and take him off the campaign trail. I also think it will eventually be overturned on appeal.

[JimHow]

...And the statute of limitations on the misdemeanors had expired, the only way they could prosecute was by tying them to felonies.

Two appellate levels in New York and then a direct appeal to the Supreme Court, that'll take a good two to three years, he'll be out on bail in the meantime. What will be fascinating is when he exhausts all his appeals and has to go into execution of his sentence at Rikers while he is president.

I have a client sitting in Rikers awaiting a murder rap, one good thing is they allow conjugal visits.

[marcs]

If he’s elected president (which I don’t believe he will be, but it could happen) I don’t think there’s any way the Supreme Court lets this stand. Think of how our system would work if any state or local jurisdiction that didn’t like a president and could find some nexus could cook up crazy charges and haul the guy into jail.

What I’m curious about is whether he’s in Rikers while the appeals are proceeding and it keeps him off the campaign trail.

[DavidG]

So you’re saying the Edwards case differed enough that Trump’s actions, not just the prosecution, are unprecedented. Fair enough. First time for everything. And even if it’s been let go in other cases, sometimes the stakes are high enough that someone needs to say enough. This will not stand unchallenged.

Trump wasn’t convicted because the local jurisdiction didn’t like him and “cooked up crazy charges.” He actually falsified business records in furtherance of a felony. If it was Joe Biden the Trumpers would be singing a completely different tune, but that’s another story.

I agree that the conviction will likely be overturned. I hope the process will serve as a wake up call to the public. Sadly, most will remain disengaged. I think Trump is likely to win this fall. Not because the conviction will increase his support, the opposite is likely. But because of fracture among Democrats regarding the war in Gaza and the likelihood that Kennedy will be on the ballot in some of the swing states.

I would much rather have seen Trump go to trial on the Georgia vote stealing case or the documents case before the election. That won’t happen because Trump has taken advantage of all the privilege afforded to rich, white, powerful guys. He’s hardly the persecuted underdog that he and his whiny supporters make him out to be.

[marcs]

But a core weirdness of the case is — what felony did Trump “further” by his misclassified expenses? He has not been convicted of any felony outside of this case nor did this case convict him of any underlying felony! Instead every one of the 34 counts is an individual “misclassification” of a business expense! (I.e one count for every line item or classification claimed to be wrong).

The claim made to the jury was that the felony was a violation of Federal campaign contributions law which was also illegal under a NYS law which makes it illegal to influence an election by “unlawful” means (i.e. in this case by violation of Federal law). But the prosecution had no burden of proof for that felony, and the Justice Department had already declined to bring a Federal case on campaign contributions. It is questionable whether this expenditure by Trump would actually violate campaign contribution law, since 1) trump can make unlimited contributions to his own campaign, and 2) not all expenditures motivated by winning an election are campaign expenses if you don’t choose to classify them as such. I am far from an expert on the ins and outs of campaign law though.

There is a certain cosmic justice to this case because the fact pattern is indicative of Trump's pervasive sleaziness. But we have had a number of rather sleazy presidents. The precedent of this case is extremely disturbing because something like this could probably be brought against any high level politician with complex paperwork dealings.

[stefan]

The jury judged that the charges of that Trump misclassified expenditures in corporate books were proved beyond a reasonable doubt. Suppose that appeal court rules that the elevation of those misdemeanor charges to felonies was unconstitutional or improperly done. Since the statute of limitations on the misdemeanors has expired, does that imply that Trump gets off the hook?

[Michael-P]

BD: “…conjugal visits” Well I doubt it will be either Melania or Stormy!

[JimHow]

I wonder if the secret service will be following him in for his showers.

[Gerry M.]

I read somewhere the Secret Service has had discussions with the NY Dept of Corrections prior to the verdict and the conclusion was he would lose SS protection in prison.

[stefan]

>>
he would lose SS protection in prison.
>>

That is awful!

[JimHow]

Orange up 6 points in Georgia in post-conviction Quinnipiac poll. Hard to see how Joe wins this race. And then the retribution will begin. Lawyer up now, Hillary and Barack, you're going to need it.

[DavidG]

Orange up 6 points in Georgia in post-conviction Quinnipiac poll. Hard to see how Joe wins this race. And then the retribution will begin. Lawyer up now, Hillary and Barack, you're going to need it.

That’s the really scary part.

[JimHow]

I don't think I can even bring myself to watch the debate tonight, maybe I'll turn it on with the sound off while sipping on a fine northern Medoc.

[stefan]

We'll watch, but I don't want to waste a good bottle of wine on the debate. I was thinking of drinking Tequila laced with Vodka and Cointreau. I'm wondering if a quart of each is enough.

[JimHow]

I think I'm going to go with something 15%+ tonight and drink myself into oblivion while contemplating the few short remaining months of our historic democracy. Hey, we had a good run.

[JimHow]

Holy fuck what a disaster tonight for the Democrats.

[JimHow]

Holy shit this is the biggest disaster in presidential debate history.

[JimHow]

Joe Biden looks like he is ready for hospice care.

[JimHow]

Whitmer-Beshear '24

[JimHow]

Wow what a catastrophe tonight.

[JimHow]

This is such a disaster that it is going to have down ticket ramifications.

[JimHow]

This was a first round lightning knockout for Trump and the Republicans. Devastating.

[DavidG]

Unmitigated disaster.

[Tom In DC]

They're bickering over golf handicaps.

We're doomed whichever way it goes.

Is there still time for conventions picking new candidates?

[DavidG]

Biden doesn’t stand a chance after this. Historic failure. Worse than I imagined, and I imagined it would be pretty bad. The Ds have to find an alternative.

[Tom In DC]

Joe should resign tonight.

He gets to go to the ex-presidents' clubhouse knowing he was VP to the first president of color, and passed the office to the first non-male president. Seems like a good record with which to go out.

[stefan]

Trump was bad.

Biden was beyond belief.

[DavidG]

Who the hell among his advisors thought that this was a good idea? He literally couldn't consistently put two sentences together. Sometimes not even one. They must have known what he’d be like on his own in this format. Were they just too blinded by self-interest to see this coming? Were they too afraid to tell him? Did they think a public humiliation was the best way to show him he had to step down?

I never thought I’d say this given the alternative but I'm having a tough time envisioning pulling the lever for Biden.

I don’t know the logistics and legalities but Tom you may be right.

[s*d*r]

An open convention like in the cigar-back-room '50s is still possible but only if Sleepy Joe voluntarily yields.

Most important Dem in the country now --> Jill Biden.

Two options now: #1 Keep SJ on the ticket --> lose bigly; #2 Open Convention --> lose anyway but not as bigly

[DavidG]

I think that’s right, Stu. Option 2 might be better for down-ticket contests.

[JimHow]

Yeah, agreed. Susan Glasser described it as "funereal" ninety minutes after the debate. This was really jarring last night. We've seen a lot of crazy things, just in the time since we started this thread. Last night was a turning point. Not just a new low, but a sign of something really bad going down. It feels like things are unraveling. I just had a beer with my criminal defense buddies, we were talking about the constitutional free fall collapse of our criminal court system, where hundreds of people are sitting in Maine jails, and thousands more across the country, without legal representation. There's a sense that things are unraveling.

[JimHow]

New York Times editorial board calling for Biden to leave the race. Incredible times we are living through.

[Claudius2]

Guys
I watched a few clips from the debate over here in Singapore.
it showed Biden being cognitively impaired to a greater extent than most nursing home residents.
Sorry, I just could not watch anymore - I felt a state of acute discomfort and embarrassment.

Trump was his usual combative, argumentative self.
What the English would typically call a windbag.
Whilst the republicans are saying he won the debate, i am not sure I would bother calling it a debate.
I was in the school debating teams in middle and high school, and this isn't how we were taught to debate.

So now what??
I see the Dems are in panic mode, but why?
Biden has shown cognitive decline for some time and none of this is exactly new.

[marcs]

I actually watched this debate and it was one of the most surreal political experiences I have ever had. Trump was every bit as awful as Biden but in a totally different way. Just an all around devastating display.

One thing you guys don’t get about me is that I don’t like Trump at all but I also despise the political establishment arrayed against him, which consistently reveals itself to be as incompetent and corrupt as he is, and indeed enables him through their incompetence. Everything we are seeing with Biden now was COMPLETELY PREDICTABLE and AVOIDABLE. But it was not done. Not to mention Biden’s own selfishness and lust for power in choosing to run for President of the United States at 82 instead of gracefully stepping aside into retirement after over 50 years at the highest levels of political power. Surely that is symptomatic of an inner corruption just as deep as Trumps.

“First cast the beam out of thine own eye, and then shall thou see clearly to cast the mote out of thy neighbors eye”. Trump opponents are incapable of seeing that the establishment they rely on and identify with to protect them from Trump is simply not fit for purpose. This is only the latest example of many in which Trumps enemies have made disastrous choices that empowered Trump.

[JimHow]

There was one moment in the debate, I just can't shake it out of my mind. When Orange said, "I don't understand what he just said.... And I don't think he does either."

It was one of the most savage moments in the history of American politics, one of the most savage moments I've seen in life. Joe was helpless, completely exposed to the predator. It was like the Lord of the Flies. It was Clarice in the blackness, inches away from Buffalo Bill with his infrared goggles. It was something you'd see in the Africa wildlife plains, it was the fourteenth round of the first Aaron Pryor-Alexis Arguello fight in 1982, when Pryor knocked out Arguello standing against the ropes and then proceeded to land 18 sadistic punches in about three seconds before the referee could step in.

Democracy got knocked out cold this week. I agree 100% with Marcus. A lot of the crap that has gone on in the left establishment has come home to roost. The establishment has become irretrievably corrupt and incompetent. The establishment is us. "I shouted out, 'Who killed the Kennedys?' / When after all, it was you and me...." It seems like the situation has gotten terminal, a sickness reducing us to Biden and Trump. An imperial Supreme Court. A corrupt Congress. A world teetering to right wing extremism and authoritarianism. And now the U.S. Presidency in existential peril. My neighbors have pulled out a lusty bright red "Trump '24" banner over the weekend. Trump World tastes blood, and we are left with an ancient party led by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer and the out of touch leadership, the cupcake generation of Hakeem Jeffries and the woke left, an out of tough leadership that includes our guys Barack and Bill, even, that just does not truly grasp the magnitude of what happened on Thursday night, the existential moment that all of our corruption and incompetence finally caught up to us, and democracy died, or at least went into hospice care, the image of a pale, shufffling, confused, glassy eyed old man on the CNN split screen, a sad metaphor for the end that is upon us.

[Comte Flaneur]

The whole thing was shocking looked at from over here and how can the Democrats circle the wagons around Biden? They are so much in denial. If Biden wins do you think he will be able to deliver an inauguration speech in late January? And if he does somehow win Trump won’t accept the result and there might be a civil war with 400 million guns circulating the country.

And today’s Supreme Court decision is a huge win for Trump

Yes Jim American democracy is in mortal peril.

We have an election on Thursday and even though the UK is pretty screwed as well we will get a sensible centrist government

[DavidG]

I had the same reaction to that moment in the debate, Jim. It was vicious, cruel… and masterfully effective. Devastating.

The incompetence on the left is stunning. Looks like we’ll be getting the autocracy we deserve.

Biden should step down. I hope he does.

Maybe as his last official acts Biden will take a hint from the Supreme Court and pardon himself for ordering the assassination of Trump. Not that he’d actually do it or that it would solve anything.

I think I’ve moved from denial and anger to the bargaining stage of grief, with a dose of depression creeping in.

[JimHow]

I think he's going to step down. There seems to be a groundswell developing. Incredible times we are living in.

[barsacpinci]

I think he's going to step down. There seems to be a groundswell developing. Incredible times we are living in.

His ego won’t let him step down

[JimHow]

You may be right, BP, I have a feeling that this is going to cascade. And then things will happen fast. I predict Joe won't survive the weekend.

Man. When we started this thread, did we ever in our wildest imaginations think we would see the things we've seen eight years later.