President Trump

[marcs]

Looks like the BWE demographic stepping into the election fray...

https://x.com/laurastoobusy/status/1815596283354370371

[JimHow]

One VERY important fact. The Democrats control the governorships, legislatures, and judiciaries in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, so it will be difficult for the Republicans to pull shenanigans in those states. Likewise Arizona and Nevada, not so much so in Georgia, although Kemp and Raffensberger didn’t have much patience for Orange Man last time. Unfortunately I don’t think that young lieutenant governor is still in there.

Of course, the Republicans control the House of Representatives, so there could be some possible mischief there (but Suzie Collins and company made it more difficult for mischief in the House). My biggest concern is I’m not sure how Harris appeals in the rust belt.

[JimHow]

Looks like the BWE demographic stepping into the election fray...

https://x.com/laurastoobusy/status/1815596283354370371

I like it!

[marcs]

I can’t figure out the vintage on that Pontet Canet; it’s definitely sometime in the oughts but can’t quite see what year

[DavidG]

2006???

[JimHow]

I have an unopened case of 2006 Pontet Canet in my cellar (as well as 2004), still looks pretty youthful from the color.

[marcs]

If they had been drinking a 2009 I'd follow their voting recs without hesitation...as it is I'm undecided...

[jckba]

So a picture of the 2006 PC and no corresponding note or impression, so how are we supposed to learn anything from that post

[JimHow]

Man I almost wish we could hold the election today, can we erase the calendar before Harris/Walz get defined by the Republicans.

[JimHow]

My current electoral college map.

I'm feeling optimistic about Arizona but I've got nagging concerns about Pennsylvania, which, of course, we basically cannot win without.

Thus, I have Orange up 276 - 262.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jWkK6

[JimHow]

Tis guy is funny:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gACDI3M0_5Q

I told you we'd forget about the assassination attempt within two weeks....

[JimHow]

What the lobstermen of Maine tell us about the election:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/opin ... =url-share

[JimHow]

Okay, here is our roadmap to a win.
1. The Democrats have a strong get out the vote organization.
2. The Democrats have a strong get out the vote organization, which will get us that extra .05 to 1.0% margins in AZ, NV, GA, NC, WI, MI, and PA.
And we don't even have to win all of those. If we win WI, MI, and PA, we win.
What keeps me up at night is PA. Every vote in PA counts. We MUST wine PA!

[Hm$(still)]

I’m going to say that tonight Kamala delivered a solid ass whipping.

[JCNorthway]

Funny Howard. I was thinking the same thing. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the world sees it.

[dstgolf]

Wow! Kamala was fantastic in pursuing Trump tonight. I never new her prior to tonight and I thought she was impressive. I'm Canadian and talk can't about the strengths of politics in our country at the moment but I'm hopeful that America sees what I saw tonight in Kamala as hope for America. I have no idea what Americans will choose in November but I felt she had a very strong debate and Trump looked foolish in the end. I wish Kamala well going forward but this was a big night for her in my mind as a non American.

[DavidG]

I’m feeling a lot better this evening.

[stefan]

Yes, but I still worry that "no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public".

[JCNorthway]

Point well taken, stefan.

[Jay Winton]

Sanity vs Insanity-clear choice.

[JimHow]

Man, I don’t know what will be the outcome, but I’ll say right now, no matter what happens, Kamala Harris is my hero. She was literally my least favorite, 12th of twelve, in the 2020 Dem primary, first to exit the race. A lot of experts, myself and First Lady Biden included, questioned Joe’s decision to pick her as VP. When Joe finally decided to drop out, a lot of us wanted to see some sort of contest where Gretch, Pete, and others from the deep Democratic Party bench could slug it out for a month and regroup to beat down Orange. But Kamala had a different plan. In literally 48 hours, LBJ-like, hell… Stalin-like… she ruthlessly consolidated power and suddenly she wasn’t such a joke anymore. It’s stories like this why I love American democracy so much. It is pretty hard to imagine a better executed campaign in such a short time, starting with this lovably hip character from Minnesota as her Veep, who brought the profound “the-other-guys-are-weird” theme to the campaign, to punching the bully in the eye the other night, I couldn’t bring myself to watch it from here in Bangkok but I was walking in Lumphini Park Wednesday morning our time and my brother Tom kept texting me on what a beat down was occurring in real time. Like Bobby De Niro, I’m really struggling to understand what is going on, why half the population seems so easily ready to dispense with a beautiful democracy that has prospered for a quarter of a millennium. Finishing up my vacation here in Thailand, the US seems popular here, American music and brands dominant here on the other side of the world. It is so critical that we beat this dink and send him off to prison and, hopefully, break the fever….

And yet… Damn, this feels a lot like 2016. Pennsylvania is giving me heartburn. Come on Pennsylvania. Please! Come on Pennsylvania!!!

[DavidG]

Jim, I don’t think there’s been a single time in this 142-page, 8 1/2 year old thread when I’ve been as fully in agreement with you as in the post above. In addition to Pennsylvania, I worry about Michigan.

[JimHow]

This is just going to be a bitter battle to the end, David, and without doubt it won't be over on Election Day. I'm holding out hope that Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia/Pittsburgh save us again, like they did last time. I have to believe that Kamala will do at least as well in those cities as Joe did in 2020. And I sense that the Democratic GOTV effort is even stronger this year, even though the Republicans appear to be finally waking up and prioritizing it as well. Let's get the early voting started and start harvesting those absentee ballots, it's the American way!

I was depressed reading about the Pennsylvania Supreme Court 4-3 vote on the stupid issue of properly dating absentee ballot signatures. I thought that Court had swung over to our side. This may be a harbinger of trouble to come in Pennsylvania. We already know we're going to have shenanigans in Georgia, Arizona, and elsewhere, and we've seen it in North Carolina with that state supreme court's ruling that millions of ballots need to be reprinted to get Robert Kennedy off. We were able to rely on the judicial system in 2020 to save the country, with Joe winning 60 out of 61 court cases. This time around I'm more nervous about judicial interference, especially if it gets to Clarence, Sam, and Co. (Man, there seems to be tantalizing energy out of North Carolina. We can only dream....)

It has gotten so bad for me that, when I hear about a second assassination attempt, my first priority focuses on how much it's going to influence the polls. I'm banking on the press coverage lightening up after about 3-4 days, I mean the first assassination attempt -- which I still think was a mindbogglingly astounding event on so many levels -- quieted down after a week or so in the media. I believe the poll numbers showing that Kamala has had a substantial bounce after the debate, but the question of course is whether it will fade. Although I remember Trump had a really bad debate against Joe in 2020, yelling and screaming through the whole thing (remember when Joe said something like "C'mon man," or "What is wrong with you man") and he never recovered. Then again, Hillary won her debates and was in a position to win in early October but Comey hurt her bad and, of course, she had just other fundamental flaws as a candidate. I think there will be numerous twists and turns in the weeks ahead that we can't control but one thing we CAN control is the intensity of our GOTV effort. Let's get the early voting started!

[Jay Winton]

I'm reading if Harris wins NC (polls close at 730 and write in votes are being tallied), it could be all over for the Trumpster. The Republican candidate for governor is a total loser as well.

[JimHow]

I was unaware of that information about North Carolina, Jay, very interesting indeed. As we know the phony Republicans in some states have delayed the opening of mail in ballots until after the polls close, which gives the Republicans an advantage in the early hours before the Democratic votes get counted later at night. I’ll never forget that midnight rant by Orange on election night, calling for them to stop counting the vote in Michigan and elsewhere. When we went to bed we thought Joe had lost Michigan but he ended up winning by over 100,000. The late counting of absentee ballots fits right into Trump’s conspiracies.

[JimHow]

It’s like, yes, Orange, we’ll stop counting the votes in Michigan before they count the votes in Detroit. Okay, got it. Man… this dude is a flat out fascist. I remember the next morning, 11 of my lawyer buddies and I have a text thread, I woke up at like 5:30, Orange was still well ahead in Michigan, and my buddy Dave Brandt and I said, well that’s it, we lost. And then my buddy Tony Ferguson said, no, they still have to count like 75% of the vote in Detroit. And, sure enough, later that morning Joe won by 100k. The Democrats aren’t perfect but the Reoublicsns are pure evil when it comes to vote suppression. And when you add in the fascist Big Lies of Orange Head, election night and the days that follow are going to be a perilous time for this country.

[JimHow]

I'm so into this campaign that I finally found out what Billy Ilish looks like. She's a girl.

[JimHow]

If we can have like just no more Lee Harvey Oswald moments I think we can pull this out.

I just came from a country where there is a playboy king and a military government. I think I felt better over there. You think I'm joking.

[JimHow]

Joe Rogan says he's voting for my girl K. Can we just have no more assassins for another 49 days...

[JimHow]

Alberto Gonzalez, who tortures people, is voting for Harris. And yet the election is a toss up.

[DavidG]

He’s a hell of a con man.

[Jay Winton]

He’s a hell of a con man.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/20 ... er-review/

Yes, it's paywalled but not a bad time to subscribe. Support print journalism!

[JCNorthway]

Jay, I think, as a subscriber, that you can "share" a few articles a month to non-subscribers.

[JimHow]

I remember the first time I met Jay, aka "Mr. Vino."
Our second annual convention was in Napa in 2002.
My buddy Steve and I drove cross country in my 2000 Lincoln LS piece of shit "Motor Trend Car of the Year" <rolls eyes>.
We all converged in the parking lot at one of those San Francisco wine stores, The Wine House, I think?
There was Mr. vino in the parking lot. Whuzzup__ was there, and Cab Fan, I remember we went to a chic San Fransisco restaurant for lunch....
I have met Mr. Vino numerous times over the years, he has always been quietly supportive, through thick and thin. He and his amazing wife Peggy are lifelong friends. They have been to my house in Maine.
Hard to believe Mr. Vino has been a part of my life for like 37.8% of my life, but I am a richer man for it....

[DavidG]

Here’s a free link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/20 ... er-review/

[JimHow]

I still can't read it but thanks, David, I get the idea. The most expert among us have been unable to understand the appeal of this man whose message is so based on hate for fellow human beings but of course we have seen it throughout history. Mankind has an inner weakness that is vulnerable to this. The New York Times op-Ed comparing him to Richard Harris was an interesting take, although I'm still not sure it is as simple as the writer says:

https://dnyuz.com/2024/09/13/how-a-nake ... -insanity/

Why he appeals to half the population when he mocks dead soldiers, disabled people, folks unable to have children, etc., is a weakness more in us than in him. And in the United States we have the added history of bigotry and racial hate. Donald Trump is US.

[Jay Winton]

WP today: Poll shows Pennsylvania a tie.
NYT today: Harris leads in Pennsyvania but a tie nationally.

Thank you for your words BD. I remember that meeting as well.

[JimHow]

Those NYT polls are seeming conservative to me.

Omg my DNA expert from Dallas sent this to me today, I think this is the best one yet:

https://x.com/PapiTrumpo/status/1834689147317240124

[hautbrionlover]

That’s hilarious!

[stefan]

Love the song!

My favorite Harris commercials are those that are clips from Trump's public speeches.

OTOH, I wonder about emphasizing how bad Trump is without talking up Harris' good points. It reminds me of the Pope's (implied) endorsement of Harris: "Vote for the lesser evil". How can a serious theologian believe that endorsing a woman's right to make decisions about her body is the same as having or even recommending that a woman have an abortion?